Arrears reporting after four rate hikes: what lenders should be watching

The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 30 September 2026, its fourth increase this year and 100 basis points in total. Headline inflation rose to 4.0% in August, and trend unemployment edged up to 4.6%. For lenders, that combination of higher repayments, higher living costs and a softer jobs market lands in one place first: arrears.

House prices make the headlines. Arrears are where stress shows up early. The question for credit and collections teams is whether their reporting can see it coming, or only after it has arrived.

Five things a good arrears report should show now

1. Roll rates, not just balances

A static arrears balance tells you where you are. Roll rates tell you where you’re heading: the share of loans moving from current to 1–30 days, from 30 to 60, and from 60 to 90+. A rising current-to-30 roll rate is usually the first visible sign of stress, often months before the 90+ bucket moves.

2. Cohorts by settlement period

Borrowers who settled in 2024 and 2025 were assessed at very different rates from today’s. Splitting arrears by settlement vintage shows whether recent cohorts are performing worse than older ones at the same age.

3. Fixed-rate expiry exposure

Loans rolling off fixed rates face a step-change in repayments. A simple view of balances by fixed-rate expiry month, set beside arrears for loans that have already rolled, is one of the most useful forward-looking views a lender can have.

4. Hardship and arrangements alongside arrears

Hardship arrangements can hide stress in the arrears numbers. Reporting them side by side, with movements in and out, gives credit committees the full picture.

5. A consistent definition, reconciled to source

None of this works if “days in arrears” is calculated three different ways across three reports. The definition should live once, in the data model, and every report should reconcile back to the loan system.

The time to build arrears reporting is before you need it, not during the credit committee that asks for it.

Where to start

If your arrears reporting still runs on monthly exports and spreadsheets, start with roll rates by product and settlement cohort. It is the single view that tells you most about the next two quarters.

Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision, 30 September 2026, via CommBank; ABS Monthly CPI indicator for August 2026, via CommBank (1 October 2026); labour force figures via Property Update’s October 2026 economic update. This article is general information only and is not financial advice.